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dc.contributor.author Kaynak, E.
dc.contributor.author Marandu, E.E.
dc.date.accessioned 2011-03-08T07:37:54Z
dc.date.available 2011-03-08T07:37:54Z
dc.date.issued 2006-11
dc.identifier.citation Kaynak, E. & Marandu, E.E. (2006) Tourism market potential analysis in Botswana: A Delphi study, Journal of Travel Research, vol. 45, pp. 227-237 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10311/737
dc.description.abstract This article explores what would be the most probable scenario for the tourism industry in Botswana by the year 2020. A modified Delphi technique was used to generate data from 68 industry experts. The findings show that experts forecast progressively more changes and higher impact as one moves from values, structures, and events. The implication for policy makers and industry operators is that efforts aimed at increasing tourism may prove more fruitful if focused on changing structures and hosting events, rather than changing the values of the people. The study also improves on the understanding of Delphi forecasting behavior. It demonstrates that an expert who is optimistic on one factor—say, values—is likely to perceive the same with regard to other factors such as structure and events. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher SAGE http://jtr.sagepub.com/ en_US
dc.title Tourism market potential analysis in Botswana: A Delphi study en_US
dc.type Published Article en_US
dc.link http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/45/2/227.full.pdf+html en_US


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